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Project Profile Details

Emergency Planning

Indian Point Energy Center: ETE


Update the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Study for Entergy's Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) in Buchanan, N.Y., located approximately 30 miles north of New York City. The study must adhere to the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s criteria for the development of ETE.

The Challenge

At any time, the approximate 10-mile radius Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding the Indian Point Energy Center contains approximately 500,000 individuals including residents, commuters and visitors. These individuals evacuate in vehicles on over 2,000 miles of roadway with unique characteristics such as speed and intersection control. Additionally, it is necessary to consider the evacuation of transit-dependent and special needs people and their transportation requirements.

In addition to the technical demands associated with updating the detailed evacuation study, a massive data collection effort was also required to accurately estimate the EPZ population and roadway characteristics. Data collection involved communication with residents, local employers, plant workers, county officials and local and state emergency management agencies.

KLD's Approach

KLD conducted an extensive data collection initiative including a random-sample telephone survey of residents and telephone interviews with major employers and area attractions. KLD also analyzed 2010 U.S. Census data for the area.

KLD applied its own enhanced suite of evacuation models and animation software to: 

*Simulate and create a video animation of the emergency departure of 300,000 vehicles

*Identify evacuation bottlenecks -- particularly those involving critical intersections and major evacuation routes

*Develop detailed bus routes for the evacuation of transit-dependent people

*Consider different evacuation tactics such as staged evacuation wherein those closest (within 2 miles) to IPEC evacuate first, while others shelter-in-place. Doing so reduces traffic congestion on roadways beyond 2 miles from IPEC and facilitates the evacuation of those people most at risk

This software suite has its roots in the model KLD originally developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) after the Three Mile Island incident. It includes:

*Dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model (DTRAD)

*Traffic simulation model for evacuation environments 

*Data entry software

*GIS-compatible animation software showing congested evacuation paths

The ETE for each school and special facility (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) within the EPZ was calculated, with consideration of transportation resource constraints and available travel routes. In addition, KLD considered the transportation needs of the home-bound mobility impaired.

Project Results

The study is summarized in an intensive report detailing all aspects of an evacuation as well as evacuee and traffic statistics. The report was submitted to the NRC for approval in December, 2012 and is available for download from the NRC’s website in the ADAMS public reading room.

As requested by the client, KLD identified critical bottlenecks and developed a detailed traffic management plan to potentially alleviate congestion at these bottlenecks and facilitate the evacuation of the EPZ populace.

The ETE study is considered state of the art and serves to protect a heavily populated area located within a short commuting distance from one of the nation's largest cities.

 Key Words: Emergency,nuclear power, evacuation


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